I was on the phone with my brother, talking about the presidential election this afternoon, and we were wondering when the networks were going to call the election. It occurred to me that this might be the perfect thing
for a betting pool to test the wisdom of crowds.
So here’s a little contest for you, gentle reader: what’s your best guess for:
- The number of electoral votes the winning candidate gets, and
- What time (Eastern, please) the first network (ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC) will call the election for the eventual winner.
Just post a comment with your best guesses, and the person with the closest guess for each number will win some Cafe Press schwag (probably a bag and a t-shirt or something similar).
After the entries close, I will update this post with the average guesses.
A few notes on rules:
- In the case of duplicate entries, e.g. two people guessing the same time for when the victor is declared, the first entry wins. In other words, review the other entries before posting and make sure that yours is unique.
- In the event of a tie (e.g. the winning candidate gets 300 electoral votes, and the two closest guesses were 299 and 301), there will be co-winners.
- Entries will close at 7 p.m. Eastern time on election day.
- Yes, my best guesses are the first comment, but no, I’m not eligible to win (obviously). In the unlikely event that I do win, second place will get the schwag.
UPDATE: OK, the average EV count guess is 347.7, and the average time that the race will be called is 11:06. For comparison’s sake, fivethirtyeight.com was predicting Obama 349, McCain 189 and electoral-vote.com was projecting Obama 353, McCain 174 with Missouri exactly tied.